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Experts
in the property sector and the seasoned pundits who
specialise in looking at the market are saying price
adjustments or corrections have already taken place,
according to tops director Roger Lake.
He said they are now reporting that sales are being
agreed at price levels that can be sustained into the
future and are at around their low point in the current
cycle. These positive reports come at a time when Northern
Rock shares have fallen yet again and the Bank of England
has warned of a slowdown in the economy next year as
well as a continued credit crunch.
"Despite these gloomy predictions for the economy in
general, the panic headlines about property prices seem
to have died down and we are currently seeing a number
of experts saying they do not expect property prices
to fall next year," said Roger. "In fact, in contrast
to the stories of weeks ago, many newspaper and TV reports
are predicting price growth next year of between zero
and nine per cent."
Objective
Journalism
One TV programme, which has researched the UK property
market thoroughly in recent weeks is BBC Two's The Truth
About Property. And over the coming weeks, tops would
like to highlight some of the issues raised in the three-episode
series.
"Homeowners are telling us they are sceptical about
the scare-mongering headlines we have seen recently
and this programme managed to get to the truth behind
some of those stories. We found it to be a very interesting,
objective piece of journalism," said Roger. "It looked
at the problems faced by those trying to climb on to
the property ladder as prices have rocketed over recent
years. But it also highlighted the fact that far too
few homes are being built and demand is still massively
outweighing supply.
"It showed that this situation cannot change in the
near future and that while so many houses are still
needed, it is highly unlikely that property prices will
fall to any great extent."
The Safest
Investment
The programme also highlighted that despite the
climate of uncertainty and the volatility of the stock
market, most people still believe property is the safest
investment. Indeed, one contributory element to the
high price rises of recent years has been the desire
to invest in property.
"The programme's research showed that 53 per cent of
people still believe property is safer than cash," said
Roger. The programme focused on those who had made money
investing in property and those who were losing out
because they were unable to climb on to the first rung
of the property ladder.
"What made the programme especially interesting was
the situation of presenter Andrew Verity himself. He
had seen his two-bedroom property rise hugely in value
and in 2004 had believed those saying the situation
couldn't continue. So he sold his property and put his
profit in the bank.
"Now, however, to use his own words he is 'quids out
and priced out'. Prices have continued to rise, he is
unable to climb back on to the property ladder at the
same level and now can't afford to buy a home of the
same size as the one he is renting."
Moving
Forward
The most pessimistic view of the property market is
that prices won't move up during the coming year, said
Roger. The most optimistic is an expectation of growth
of about three times the rate of inflation.
"The good news, and the encouragement that buyers and
sellers need, is the experts' consensus view that the
property market is going forward, not backwards. People's
investments and equity in their homes are safe and uncertainty
seems now to have been taken out of the equation.
"The tops view has always been that the fundamentals
in the property sector have remained good, the only
difficulty over the past two months has been a big shortage
of willing buyers, but even this situation is quickly
easing.
"There have been indications that interest rates should
drop fairly soon, and there could be two further falls
into next year. Wise buyers are therefore jumping at
the opportunities available to them now, and are out
viewing property with the objective of agreeing a purchase
prior to Christmas."
What the
experts say
"A majority of British people believe buying property
is now a safer place to put their money than saving
with a bank or building society." Andrew Verity,
The Truth About Property.
"The UK economy
is in a strong position. Sound market fundamentals,
including high levels of employment and a shortage in
the number of properties available for sale, will continue
to support house prices." Martin Ellis, chief
economist, Halifax, BBC News "
"The key to
whether your property will be worth more or less next
year is location, the type of property it is and how
much it is worth." The Times
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