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December 7, 2007 Issue 22

The Truth About Property I



Experts in the property sector and the seasoned pundits who specialise in looking at the market are saying price adjustments or corrections have already taken place, according to tops director Roger Lake.
He said they are now reporting that sales are being agreed at price levels that can be sustained into the future and are at around their low point in the current cycle. These positive reports come at a time when Northern Rock shares have fallen yet again and the Bank of England has warned of a slowdown in the economy next year as well as a continued credit crunch.
"Despite these gloomy predictions for the economy in general, the panic headlines about property prices seem to have died down and we are currently seeing a number of experts saying they do not expect property prices to fall next year," said Roger. "In fact, in contrast to the stories of weeks ago, many newspaper and TV reports are predicting price growth next year of between zero and nine per cent."

Objective Journalism
One TV programme, which has researched the UK property market thoroughly in recent weeks is BBC Two's The Truth About Property. And over the coming weeks, tops would like to highlight some of the issues raised in the three-episode series.
"Homeowners are telling us they are sceptical about the scare-mongering headlines we have seen recently and this programme managed to get to the truth behind some of those stories. We found it to be a very interesting, objective piece of journalism," said Roger. "It looked at the problems faced by those trying to climb on to the property ladder as prices have rocketed over recent years. But it also highlighted the fact that far too few homes are being built and demand is still massively outweighing supply.
"It showed that this situation cannot change in the near future and that while so many houses are still needed, it is highly unlikely that property prices will fall to any great extent."

The Safest Investment
The programme also highlighted that despite the climate of uncertainty and the volatility of the stock market, most people still believe property is the safest investment. Indeed, one contributory element to the high price rises of recent years has been the desire to invest in property.
"The programme's research showed that 53 per cent of people still believe property is safer than cash," said Roger. The programme focused on those who had made money investing in property and those who were losing out because they were unable to climb on to the first rung of the property ladder.
"What made the programme especially interesting was the situation of presenter Andrew Verity himself. He had seen his two-bedroom property rise hugely in value and in 2004 had believed those saying the situation couldn't continue. So he sold his property and put his profit in the bank.
"Now, however, to use his own words he is 'quids out and priced out'. Prices have continued to rise, he is unable to climb back on to the property ladder at the same level and now can't afford to buy a home of the same size as the one he is renting."

Moving Forward
The most pessimistic view of the property market is that prices won't move up during the coming year, said Roger. The most optimistic is an expectation of growth of about three times the rate of inflation.
"The good news, and the encouragement that buyers and sellers need, is the experts' consensus view that the property market is going forward, not backwards. People's investments and equity in their homes are safe and uncertainty seems now to have been taken out of the equation.
"The tops view has always been that the fundamentals in the property sector have remained good, the only difficulty over the past two months has been a big shortage of willing buyers, but even this situation is quickly easing.
"There have been indications that interest rates should drop fairly soon, and there could be two further falls into next year. Wise buyers are therefore jumping at the opportunities available to them now, and are out viewing property with the objective of agreeing a purchase prior to Christmas."

What the experts say
"A majority of British people believe buying property is now a safer place to put their money than saving with a bank or building society." Andrew Verity, The Truth About Property.

"The UK economy is in a strong position. Sound market fundamentals, including high levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties available for sale, will continue to support house prices." Martin Ellis, chief economist, Halifax, BBC News "

"The key to whether your property will be worth more or less next year is location, the type of property it is and how much it is worth." The Times

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